The hottest Su Wu futures should be cautious about

2022-08-18
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Su Wu Futures: we should be cautious about the recent rebound height of Shanghai Jiao

[the futures market has fixed a strain force sensor to prohibit the rotation of the block around its central axis]

on November 3, Shanghai Jiao ru0901 closed at 13855, up 530 from the settlement price on October 31, and the daily limit, and the position volume increased by 3264 to 63256 hands. The total number of multiple orders in the top 20 is more than 1113 empty orders, accounting for 69% and 66% of the total unilateral position of 901 contract respectively; Because Japan celebrates national culture day, TOCOM market can be closed in real time due to problems

[spot market]

on November 3, the average price of China rubber scr5/55 standard glue fell by 31 yuan to 18169 yuan/ton, and there was no spot transaction (on October 17, the transaction was 60 tons, and the average price was 18700 yuan/ton); The RSS3 of Thai No.3 cigarette glue shipped in November rose 7 cents to cents/kg. Calculated at the tariff rate of 5%, its dutiable price was about 16570 yuan/ton, and the cost of Shanghai warehouse receipt was 16740 yuan/ton

[investment analysis]

the signs of global economic slowdown are increasing, which deepened concerns about future oil demand, and crude oil fell sharply overnight. Revitalizing the global economy will be a long-term gradual adjustment process. Against this background, the probability of a sharp rebound in crude oil in the near future will be very low, and even the possibility of exploring the $60 line in the future cannot be ruled out

the news of production reduction in rubber producing countries is still boosting rubber prices, but in the face of weak market demand, the supporting role of production reduction seems to be slightly weak, and the market still doubts whether the production reduction plan can meet expectations, because it will affect the income of rubber plantation owners. Ratchai, chairman of the Thai Rubber Association, said that the current rubber price of 60 baht per kilogram was acceptable to rubber farmers. The global economic slowdown and financial turmoil have led to the decline of global rubber usage with the reduction of car sales. The government should not intervene in rubber prices

on the whole, Tianjiao will enter a shock period before the financial storm subsides and investor confidence recovers. We should not expect too much about the recent rebound height of Shanghai Jiao. There are still great risks in catching up. Activists can pay more attention to the 903 contract

note: the reprinted contents are indicated with the source. The reprint is until the verification is qualified. For the purpose of transmitting more information, it does not mean to agree with the viewpoint of the tensile testing machine or confirm the authenticity of its contents

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