The hottest Su Wu futures PTA market has not yet r

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Su Wu Futures: it is not yet time to assert that the PTA market has hit the bottom

PTA in Zhengzhou still fell slightly this week. Ta901 closed at 4418, down 230, and the trading volume continued to expand

pta's corona resistance is better than that of other engineering plastics. On November 14, the price index of China fiber PTA slipped from 5200 yuan/ton of 1 alloy structural steel or equivalent materials on January 7 to 4400 yuan/ton

the downstream market is also in a downturn. According to the medium fiber price index, in the chemical industry and other industries, compared with November 7, polyester staple fiber fell by 400 yuan to 7000 yuan/ton, filament chips fell by 600 yuan to 5700 yuan/ton, and bottle grade chips fell by 700 yuan to 6900 yuan/ton on November 14. According to CCF data, the startup rate of domestic polyester factories this week stabilized at 73%, and product inventories began to rise

the operating load of domestic PTA plant continues to stabilize at about 70%. A 600000 ton PTA plant of Hualian Sanxin will produce qualified products this week, and another 600000 ton PTA plant will also have a start-up plan in the later stage; Yisheng (Dalian) 1.5 million ton PTA project is also planned to be put into operation in December. However, this is not always the case. A 600000 ton PTA plant in BP Zhuhai has been scheduled to be shut down in the middle of the month, and the 900000 ton plant in phase II is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in early December; The operating rate of Xianglu Petrochemical PTA unit has been around 90% since the first ten days of November, and has gradually decreased to around 60% since the middle of the month

in terms of cost, the upstream MX and PX showed signs of stabilization, but they still did not get out of the overall weakness. On November 13, the spot price of CFR China/Taiwan paraxylene (PX) LC was US dollars, a slight increase of US $4/ton compared with October 7. Referring to the cost price calculation formula, the current PTA production cost is around 4370 yuan/ton (589.5.5 × six point eight two eight nine × one point zero two × one point one seven × 0.655+1200≈4370)。

At the policy level, on November 12, the executive meeting of the State Council announced that from December 1, 2008, the export tax rebate rate of some labor-intensive products, mechanical and electrical products and other greatly affected products would be further increased. According to relevant people, light textile products will occupy an important position in the list of adjusting the catalogue. We will wait and see, but given that the previous two increases in export tax rebates have not effectively stimulated the export of textiles and clothing, most market participants are still relatively cautious

on the whole, the prospect of the textile industry is not bright, the supply and demand of polyester products are still loose, and the international oil price has not stepped out of the downward channel. Moreover, in a weak market, demand is the reason for rising, while cost is the reason for falling. Under the above background, the PTA market will lack confidence in the development of China's plastic machinery enterprise market, and it is not yet time to assert that the market has hit the bottom

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