PMI of the hottest manufacturing industry rebounde

2022-08-07
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PMI in the manufacturing sector has rebounded for two consecutive months, with no worries about the economic soft landing

PMI in the manufacturing sector has rebounded for two consecutive months, with no worries about the economic soft landing

China Construction Machinery Information

Guide: PMI has rebounded for two consecutive months, and the economy is slowly stabilizing. According to the data jointly released by the China Federation of logistics and purchasing and the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday, 3. How about the basic configuration, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China's manufacturing sector in January was 50.5%, It is 0.2 percentage point higher than that in December last year. This means

the economy is "slowing down and stabilizing"

the data jointly released by the China Federation of logistics and purchasing and the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in January was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from December last year

since last year, the index has been showing a downward trend in volatility. In November last year, it fell back to less than 50%, and has continued to rise slightly in the last two months. The PMI data in January was much better than the market expectation. Previously, the market generally expected that the PMI would fall below 50% in January

from the 11 sub indexes, compared with last December, the production index, new order index, purchase price index and raw material inventory index increased, while the other indexes decreased. Among them, the purchase price index and raw material inventory index increased significantly, more than 1 percentage point; The backlog order index, finished product inventory index and import index decreased significantly by more than 2 percentage points

"the PMI index continued to rise slightly in January, indicating that China's economic callback process is gradually stabilizing." Said zhangliqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the development research center of the State Council

zhangliqun pointed out that from the change of investment and export growth in December last year, it is expected that the future economic growth will still show a correction trend, but the signs of stabilization will become more and more obvious

it is worth noting that the HSBC PMI released on the same day also rebounded for two consecutive months. According to the data, the final value of HSBC PMI in January was 48.8, which was the same as the initial value. This value was 48.7 in December last year, and has rebounded since the 32 month low set in November last year

however, the HSBC PMI has been below the 50 dry and prosperous watershed for three consecutive months. Quhongbin, chief economist of HSBC China, pointed out that "the data shows that the growth momentum of manufacturing industry is still relatively weak at the beginning of the new year, and the slowdown of economic activities has begun to affect the employment market and may further drag down domestic consumer demand. This requires that the policy level continue to make breakthroughs in technology and increase fine-tuning efforts to stabilize growth and ensure employment, while the significant slowdown in inflation pressure also provides ample space for further fine-tuning."

monetary policy may maintain fine-tuning efforts

pmi sub index, new order index and production index both recovered, which also shows that the effect of early policy fine-tuning is beginning to appear, and domestic demand and production become the driving force of economic growth under the policy. The data showed that the new order index in January was 50.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, ending the process of contracting in the previous two months; The production index was 53.6%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points

analysts believe that PMI is expected to continue to rise as the effect of policy fine-tuning becomes more apparent. Guotai Junan expects that PMI will continue to rise to 51% in February

in this context, although the economic growth in the first quarter may continue to fall from the year-on-year growth of 8.9% in the fourth quarter of last year, many analysts still believe that a soft landing of the economy this year is still within sight

quhongbin predicted that the economic growth in the first quarter will be difficult, and the GDP growth rate is likely to reach about 8%. However, as the effect of early policy fine-tuning is further apparent, the soft landing of China's economy in 2012 can still be expected

JPMorgan Chase also holds the same view. 2. Pressure test mechanism. JPMorgan Chase pointed out in its latest research report that China's economic growth momentum will continue to slow down in the near future, and China's GDP may slow down to 8.2% in the first quarter. However, with the fine-tuning of domestic policies and the improvement of the global economic environment, it is expected that China's economy may usher in a strong rebound in the second half of the year

many experts and analysts believe that in the future, monetary policy will still maintain a certain degree of fine-tuning to support the real economy. Quhongbin pointed out that the quantitative easing based on the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio will continue, and it is likely that the deposit reserve ratio will be reduced in February

in the first quarter, with the return of fiscal deposits to the central bank, the shrinkage of the maturity of central bank bills and the slowdown in the growth of foreign exchange, it is expected that the central bank will maintain appropriate inter-bank market liquidity through open market operation or reducing the reserve ratio

in terms of fiscal policy, we will continue to implement active fiscal policy this year, in which structural tax reduction is the focus, as long as there are requirements for mechanical properties

XieXuren, Minister of finance, pointed out that it is necessary to improve the structural tax reduction policy, promote the development of enterprises and guide residents' consumption. Reduce tariffs on some imported commodities and increase the import of energy and resource products, advanced equipment and key components; We will implement various policies to reduce the tax burden on small and micro enterprises, such as raising the value-added tax and business tax threshold, and implement preferential income tax policies for small and low profit enterprises

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