Policies and measures to slow down the growth of t

2022-07-26
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The policies and measures for the slowdown of the electrical industry need to be strengthened

benefit from the influence of factors such as, new energy industry and energy structure optimization. In recent years, China's electrical (1) flash butt welding industry has maintained stable growth and gradually grown into one of the world's largest and most advanced electrical application markets. At home and abroad, the environment is in the upward stage, and the speed and scale of development cover up deep-seated problems. However, in the downward stage of the domestic and international environment, the weak foundation of China's electrical industry, lack of independent intellectual property rights, unreasonable use of raw materials, backward implementation of international standards for electronic products by enterprises and other problems have emerged and become the shackles of industry transformation

in the first half of 2018, the national macroeconomic environment was relatively severe. The troika of investment, export and consumption was restrained to varying degrees. At the same time, structural deleveraging and other adverse factors were superimposed, resulting in a rapid decline in investment growth, a slowdown in market demand and a tightening of capital liquidity, posing a severe test to the real economy. All these have had different effects on the development of the electrical industry

the growth slowed down in the first three quarters, and the key products dropped significantly.

in the first half of 2018, the main business income of China's electrical industry was 2529.375 billion yuan, an increase of 9.78% year-on-year; The total profit was 133.889 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. These two indicators are lower than the average level of the machinery industry. At present, the national supply side reform in the power industry has had a far-reaching impact on the coal power equipment manufacturing industry. As for each sub industry of the electrical industry, it can be seen that the situation of traditional leading products is not optimistic due to the impact of the national coal and electricity industry policy. From January to July, the thermal power market fell sharply, and the year-on-year growth rate of power generation equipment was -11.65%. Among them, power station boilers and other related products declined significantly, with a year-on-year increase of -17.19% in the output of main products from January to July; The cumulative increase in the output of main products of gas turbines from January to July was -71.31%; The completion of main products of communication and electronic network cables increased by -15.64%. From the monthly growth trend, the growth rate was lower than that in 2017. However, the three sub industries of power cable, welding machine and electric tool have developed well and formed a strong support

the market forecast is seriously insufficient. Rome wasn't built in a day.

the decline trend of the electrical industry in the first three quarters of this year was not sudden, which is closely related to the changes in the internal and external environment of the industry development and the deep-seated problems faced by the industry itself in the development process. Specifically, at present, China's electric power industry is facing five major problems

the first is the overall decline of the total bidding volume. In the first three quarters of 2018, China's power supply and demand were generally loose, and the total amount of bidding in the domestic power market fell compared with last year. Among them, thermal power bidding projects fell by about 40%, nuclear power has not yet approved new projects, and the number of gas turbine bidding was basically the same as last year. The 531 New Deal put the photovoltaic industry on the brakes, and only hydropower pumped storage projects and wind power increased. Similarly, the international market is still facing the problems of few projects, long cycle and difficult financing

the second reason is that the orders of thermal power equipment have fallen sharply, and the pressure of transformation and upgrading is enormous. According to the survey organized by the China Electrical Appliance Industry Association, at present, some of the three major power generation equipment products of enterprises have declined by more than 20% year-on-year. From January to July, the three major products of power plant steam turbine, power plant boiler and power generation equipment of Harbin electric group decreased by 48.9%, 36.7% and 23.2% respectively year on year; Dongfang Electric and natural gas group decreased by 18.5%, 15.3% and 31.6% respectively

the third is the slow pace of enterprise transformation. At present, the industrial structure of traditional backbone enterprises in the industry is unreasonable, the proportion of coal-fired power in traditional industries is still very high, and the subsidies for clean energy, especially photovoltaic and wind power industries, have fallen sharply, the prices have fallen, and the sustainable development of the industry is facing challenges

fourth, the localization of gas turbine is blocked. For more than a decade, China has basically established a heavy-duty gas turbine manufacturing and supporting pattern in China through bundling bidding, formed a heavy-duty gas turbine manufacturing system with four enterprises as the core, including Dongdian, Harbin power, Shanghai power and NAC, and supported by multiple enterprises, and qhmac103[1] 143 (2) 01 (2) 005 clutch pedal starts to march towards the goal of independent development of gas turbine technology

however, great changes have taken place in recent years, resulting in retrogression in localization. At present, it will take at least 2-3 years for new models to reach the localization level, and the whole equipment delivered during this period will be imported. According to the implementation plan of the two units project, it is expected that the prototype of class h gas turbine will not be developed until 2023. However, according to the current development trend of gas and electricity, power users have begun to conduct independent bidding for class h gas turbine. The possible problem is that by 2023, when China independently develops H-class gas turbine, the market has been occupied by foreign brands and the application space has been lost. In addition, the consortium formed by the four domestic manufacturing enterprises and the foreign party changed during the bundling bidding that year. The principle of forming a substantial consortium with domestic manufacturers, transferring technology and not allowing the whole machine to be imported, which was originally set in the bundling bidding, has disappeared

V: the outlet of electrical equipment is blocked. Since the beginning of this year, trade frictions between the United States and China have become increasingly heated, and the United States has imposed many restrictions on Chinese exports. Electric tools, low-voltage appliances (less than 1000V), motors, wires and cables in the electrical field are the major exporters of the power equipment industry. In 2017, according to the statistics of China Electrical Appliance Industry Association, the total amount of these four categories of products directly exported to the United States was about US $8.742 billion with the promulgation and further upgrading of the national fuel consumption limit regulations. With the escalation of trade frictions between China and the United States, once the United States imposes a 25% tariff on these four categories of products, an additional fee of US $2.186 billion will be incurred. In particular, it should be pointed out that the above four categories of products, in addition to the export of electric tools as complete machines, low-voltage electrical appliances, motors, wires and cables, in addition to being exported in the name of spare parts, are also heavily equipped in other electromechanical products such as automobiles, machine tools, engineering machinery, etc. once the tariffs on these complete products are also increased, there will be a very large indirect impact on the export of low-voltage electrical appliances, motors, wires and cables and other spare parts, The degree of harm should not be underestimated

the national policy of expanding the market and practicing R & D in China should be implemented as soon as possible

industry experts believe that in order to promote the steady and high-quality development of the electrical industry, it is necessary to actively promote the transformation and upgrading of the electrical industry from the national policy level. Specific measures are as follows:

first, steadily promote the implementation of coal power regulation policy. After years of development, the safety level of China's coal production and the ultra-low emission technology of power coal have been very advanced. At present, there are clean and efficient utilization solutions for coal in the three main utilization modes of power coal, boiler coal and bulk coal. Thermal power is still the main power supply for a long time in the future. It is very important to maintain the stable development of industrial enterprises. Industry experts said that at present, it is very difficult for coal-fired power production enterprises to schedule production. It is suggested to formulate a follow-up start-up schedule for the implementation of coal-fired power capacity reduction projects as soon as possible, and release targeted and phased coal-fired power projects with high parameters, large capacity and low emissions, so as to create policy conditions for relevant enterprises to extricate themselves from difficulties

the second is to clarify the gas turbine demonstration project as soon as possible. In August, 2018, the National Energy Administration issued the notice on applying for the first batch of gas turbine innovation and development demonstration projects relying on energy engineering organizations. The power generation demonstration projects will be included in the national power construction plan in priority according to procedures. It is suggested to clarify the gas turbine demonstration project as soon as possible, make effective use of the existing resources, give full play to the technical advantages of the current gas turbine backbone enterprises, and gather industry forces to promote the localization process of gas turbines

the third is to coordinate the power equipment enterprises to go global. According to the strength and scale of the existing power equipment manufacturing enterprises, it is recommended that relevant departments support the power engineering general contracting mode of self manufacturing, design and construction subcontracting of main equipment, and support the equipment manufacturing enterprises to gradually improve the general contracting capacity and obtain relevant qualifications, so as to create conditions for them to speed up going global. And strengthen the financial credit support for enterprises to go global and improve the legal protection system for overseas investment

IV. return of state-owned capital operating budget to support the research and development of short board equipment. The R & D subjects of the electrical industry, especially the power generation equipment industry and the UHV power transmission and transformation equipment industry, are all central enterprises. It is suggested that the state continue to use the return of state-owned capital operating budget to support enterprises' R & D and construction of short board equipment, and focus on supporting the construction of test and detection platforms. Such as gas turbine test platform, thermal power safety valve test platform, etc. In many fields of the electrical industry, having its own test and detection platform is a necessary condition to reach the world leading level and achieve sustainable development

there are expected factors to restrain the troika, which is the factor of economic cycle. There are also unexpected factors, such as Sino US trade frictions. At present, the electrical industry has underestimated both factors. The early extensive growth has not been effectively transformed into intensive growth. Once there is a domestic economic downturn, the deterioration of the international market and the strong intervention of foreign competitors in the domestic market, it will deal with difficulties. In this case, the implementation and support of national policies are necessary, but the fundamental way to solve the problem is to strengthen the awareness and action of self-reliance and independent innovation in the electrical industry

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